08 Oct 2026

Struggling bonds, but stronger stocks: markets manage geopolitics and inflation fears in Q3

Renewed tensions in the Middle East and disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz drove energy prices higher, fuelling concerns that rising inflation could lead to further interest rate hikes. Despite these challenges, strong corporate earnings helped global equities deliver modest growth, with the MSCI ACWI Index returning 1.6% over the three months to the end of September.

Quarterly Market Outlook

Quarterly Market Outlook

Struggling bonds, but stronger stocks: markets manage geopolitics and inflation fears in Q3

Summary

  • Geopolitical tensions return: Renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed up energy prices and with them fears about rising inflation.
  • Interest rate hikes: Global central banks are taking action to curb inflation, and the US, Japan and Europe have already raised interest rates. The Bank of England has held steady for now but is expected to follow suit.
  • Diversification pays off: Tech shares wobbled in July only to recover. The UK and energy stocks held up well, while bonds and real assets dipped due to interest rate rises. Gold and other diversifying investments have helped to cushion portfolios from uncertainty.


Q3 in review

Renewed tensions in the Middle East made for a bumpier quarter, and disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices even higher. This has led to growing concerns about rising inflation, which could lead to further interest rate hikes.

But despite the bumpy backdrop, global equities saw a modest increase in the three months to the end of September, driven by strong company profits. Global equities, measured by the MSCI ACWI Index, returned 1.6% over the quarter.

Central banks are making moves to curb inflation. The US, Europe and Japan have already started raising interest rates. The Bank of England held the base rate steady at 3.75% at its last meeting but is expected to follow suit soon.

The portfolio benefited from its global equity positioning over the quarter, with higher allocations to the US and Japan adding value. Europe was weak and a decision to remove a small overweight to the region in July has helped to reduce our exposure. Most of our active equity managers outperformed broader global markets over the period and contributed positively to performance.


Tech stocks wobble

The uncertain outlook made for some ups and downs over the quarter, with the leading markets changing through the period. The US economy remained resilient and results from the 500 largest American companies were impressive, with 86% beating expectations. Overall profits were up 56% from a year ago.

Reassuringly, it is no longer just tech stocks putting in a strong performance; a much wider range of businesses are now reporting healthy profits. In fact, tech stocks experienced something of a wobble in July as investors questioned how quickly heavy spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI) will actually turn into profits.

The sector had recovered by August, however, rising modestly in September. The Vulcan Value Equity Fund was one of the biggest beneficiaries of this bounceback. It returned 7.6% over the quarter, reflecting strong performance from some of its larger technology and software holdings.

The tech wobble had an effect on broader emerging markets, where countries such as Korea and Taiwan have a high concentration of companies in the sector. The SSGA Emerging Market Equity fund returned dropped 0.4% over the quarter.


Where in the world

Rising oil prices might be bad news for household energy bills and petrol prices, but it led to strong performance from UK equity markets over the quarter. The UK market has more energy stocks and fewer tech companies than others, which helped performance, and the economy grew more than expected.

The iShares UK Equity Fund returned 1.8% over the quarter - but while the UK was one of the best performers in July, it gave back some of these gains in September as expectations of interest rate hikes weighed on the market.

European shares delivered more modest returns over the quarter. While the economy grew faster than expected, there are stillconcerns about inflation. Europe imports much of its energy so is affected by rising oil prices. The SSGA European Equity Fund dropped 1.6% over the period.

Japan was among the strongest markets in the quarter and the SSGA Japan Equity Fund returned 5.7%. Good company results were underpinned by ongoing efforts by banks and tech companies to improve corporate governance (how companies are run). The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1.25% but reassured investors that any further increases would be gradual.


Bonds: Repriced and Repositioned

It was a challenging quarter for bonds, with most parts of the market delivering negative returns. This was largely due to concerns that sticky inflation will mean interest rates remain higher for longer. Another factor is that governments are issuing more debt, which means issuing more bonds, to fund their spending.

UK government bonds (known as Gilts) are often considered something of a safe haven, but fell in value amid concerns about government borrowing and high inflation. By the end of September, the UK government was paying its highest level of interest to borrow for almost 30 years.

When rates are rising, the fixed coupon paid by bonds already in issue looks less attractive against bonds being newly issued with a higher coupon. This causes the yield of the bonds to rise and the price of the bonds to fall.

Against that backdrop, it is unsurprising that government bonds were among the weakest performers. The SSGA Global Treasury Bond Fund (GBP Hedged) dropped2.3% while the SSGA Global Aggregate Bond Fund (GBP Hedged), which includes corporate bonds (those issued by companies), went down 2.6%. Emerging markets were weaker still, with the JPM Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond Fund also saw a reduction of 3.0%.


Other assets

Rising interest rates have also hurt infrastructure and property investments, as borrowing for their projects becomes more expensive and the income they produce looks less attractive compared with bonds.

The ATLAS Global Infrastructure Fund returned saw a big pull back of 8.4% in GBP, as its UK and European holdings, and particularly utility companies and airports, were affected by higher borrowing costs. The LGIM Global Real Estate Fund dropped 6.6%. Importantly, the performance for both remains positive over the year to date, with Atlas up 8% and LGIM 3.6%.

Gold, which typically performs strongly at times of uncertainty, had a mixed quarter. While the precious metal rose strongly in August, it fell by 6.5% in September. Rising interest rates and a stronger US dollar reduce the appeal of the metal. The iShares Physical Gold ETC returned 3.6%.

Amid the uncertainty, diversifying investments remain a crucial part of the portfolio. The Man Dynamic Diversification Fund, which uses a range of systematic investment strategies, was the strongest performer among our alternative investments, returning 8.5%.

Catastrophe Bonds, used by insurers to reduce their risk to natural disasters, delivered positive returns despite it being peak hurricane season. The investments pay a regular income from the premiums paid by the insurers, but can suffer when a catastrophe occurs and triggers a pay out. Our exposure is through the Leadenhall UCITS ILS Fund, which returned 3.9%.


How have our portfolios evolved over the quarter?

We have now completed all five planned tranches of investment into the WTW Global Equity Diversified Index (GEDI) for the MPS and DFM portfolios, with the transition for the Multi-Asset Funds (MAF) having been completed in the first quarter of the year.

This quarter, MPS/DFM portfolios removed their overweight to European equities, with the proceeds being distributed between positions in the US and Japan, where we see stronger investment opportunities. This reflects our expectation of lower growth in European markets due to their reliance on imported energy.

For DFM portfolios, we increased the allocation to gold, to bring this in line with MAF models, a move that was funded from Global Aggregate exposure.

For our Conservative through to Balanced portfolios, we introduced the HSBC Securitised Credit fund, which was funded from a combination of Enhanced Cash and Global Aggregate Bonds.

We also increased exposure to US inflation-linked government bonds across all of the portfolios to provide greater protection against inflation. In the Conservative and Defensive portfolios, we introduced shorter-dated bonds, while increasing exposure to these in the Cautious, Balanced and Growth portfolios. These changes were funded by reducing other global bond holdings.

Disclaimer

The information and opinion contained in this article should not be treated as a forecast, research or advice to buy or sell any particular investment or to adopt any investment strategy and are presented for information only. Any views expressed are based on information received from a variety of sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness by atomos. Any expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investing involves risk and the value of investments, and the income from them, may fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the original amount invested.

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