100 Days In: Markets & Trump’s Second Term

This week in summary: Global markets have somewhat recovered from ‘Liberation Day’ losses, buoyed by a 'no news is good news' sentiment from the White House. Despite weaker than expected economic growth (GDP) figures for the US, markets continued their upward momentum.

The Nuance

It has been 100 days since Trump began his second term as US President, which seems like an apt time to take stock on what has happened since his inauguration - and a lot has happened. From executive orders to popularity ratings, and equity markets, Trump is certainly making his mark.

Thus far, Trump has signed 142 executive orders, setting a new record of the most signed in the first 100 days into a Presidential term. His infamous tariffs were enacted through a number of these executive orders and proclamations.

Further, as far as first 100-day popularity statistics go, Trump’s popularity ratings are the lowest of any President in their first 100 days. In term of overall approval, Trump is the only President since World War II to have had support from less than half of the public at the 100-day mark.In terms of Republican versus Democrat approval, Trump has the largest split ever; with 90% of Republicans supporting him versus only 4% of Democrats.

US stock prices tend to gradually rise in the early stages of a Presidency. We saw this uplift trend between Trump’s second election win and the end of January, but have struggled subsequently. US equity markets now have lost more than 7% since his inauguration, in their weakest start to a Presidency since Gerald Ford was in power in the 1970s.

The chart below shows the performance of US markets during the first 100 days of the past four Presidential terms. Comparing the previous three terms, and their first 100 days, Trump 2.0 does stand as an outlier. Whilst there are many factors which influence financial markets, Trump’s upending of the global trade order should not be dismissed as a key driver for the downturn in performance.

The first 100 days of Trump’s second term have brought notable market volatility and political disruption. Yet investors would do well to keep this in perspective - these initial 100 days represent only a small fraction of the 1,359 still to come in his second term. Markets have historically shown resilience over longer time periods, and long-term investors are often rewarded for staying patient through periods of early uncertainty.

The Noise

This week global equity markets have largely recovered from ‘Liberation Day’ losses. Markets were initially spooked mid-week by US GDP contracting by 0.3% last quarter, compared to a rise of 2.4% in the final quarter of 2024. However, US equity markets shrugged this off and posted gains, marking their seventh consecutive day of positive returns. Further, UK markets have extended their winning streak to 14 days. By month end, world equities have partially recovered from the 9% drawdown after Liberation Day to a decrease of just c.2.5%. See Chart Below.

Currency markets ended the month with a clear trend: dollar down, other major currencies up. The U.S. dollar faced its weakest monthly performance since November 2022, with the dollar index (which measures USD value against a basket of major currencies) declining nearly 4.5%. Conversely, the pound had its strongest month against the dollar since November 2023.
This week, global fixed income markets saw Treasury yields (which move inversely to prices) drift lower as investors priced in softer economic data and potential Federal Reserve (the US Central bank) rate cuts, with the 10-year yield dipping to 4.19%, as of 29th April 2025. UK gilts and Japanese government bonds echoed this trend, nudged down by cautious central bank tones and lingering tariff uncertainty.

The Niche

Inspired by the sunny weather this week, did you know that there’s a lot of academic research supporting the thesis that there is a statistical correlation between stock prices and sunshine. Over a period of 5 years, one study found a significant statistical correlation between morning sunshine and daily stock returns in New York. They attributed this to sunshine’s impact on human behaviour; When the sunshine intensifies, bidders become overly optimistic and less risk-averse, which can lead to higher bid prices. While many factors beyond sunshine play a much larger role in financial markets, this remains a fun statistical correlation!

Source: Hirshleifer, D., & Shumway, T. (2003). Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather. The Journal of Finance, 58(3), 1009–1032. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3094570

Disclaimer

All investment views are presented for information only and are not a personal recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns, investing involves risk and the value of investments, and the income from them, may fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the original amount invested.

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